A Verhulst Model on Time Series Error Corrected for Port Throughput Forecasting

The grey theory mainly works on systems analysis with poor, incomplete or uncertain messages. The popular grey model, GM(1,1) is efficient for long-term port throughput forecasting. However, it is imperfect when the throughput increases in the curve with S type or the increment of throughput is in the saturation stage. In this case, the throughput forecasting error of grey system model will become larger and the result is unaccepted in the real world. To solve this problem, we propose the grey Verhulst model on time series error corrected for the port throughput forecasting. By applying this Verhulst model to the port throughput forecasting, it shows that the grey Verhulst model on time series error corrected is applicable, especially, when the throughput increases according to the curve with S type, not only higher forecasting accuracy can be obtained, but also the superiority and the features of grey system model can be reserved.